Our friend Wendy Spreenberg, founder of YES! Your Exceptional Space, recently wrote a blog post that discusses her viewpoint on the coworking and flexible workspace industry and the cyclical nature of consolidation. She outlines how coworking operators are following a cycle that can more or less be predicted as far as what stages we're in now, what may occur in the mid-term and also when we might expect to see the next round of large-scale mergers and acquisitions. In her post, Wendy states:
"...our (coworking/flexworking) industry follows a predictable cycle, allowing us to respond with new ways of enabling people’s best work..."
Wendy's insights provide some great food for thought as workplace strategists, designers, end users and society as a whole looks to analyze how coworking and flexworking in the future will evolve and impact traditional office space.
We’ve seen this movie twice before.
Our consultancy was launched in 2001, following the dot-bomb and just prior to HQ and Regus each declaring bankruptcy in 2003 – 2004 after explosive growth for each in 1997-2000. They merged under the Regus (now IWG) moniker.
The next wave came as the Great Recession of 2008 and some operators dissolved or were acquired by larger operators.
Here we are at the 20-year mark, with stories again of several operators closing as a result of COVID. We are truly sympathetic to the havoc that 2020 wrought in the industry and the economy. This has been the trial of our global community and of the century, so far.
The other side of that particular coin emerged in the announcement of CBRE’s stake in Industrious as the most recent and largest story for our industry.
Feels a little bit like the movie Groundhog Day.
In the simultaneous reflection and view ahead, we do see the cyclical nature of our industry as:
Current phase: Stabilization of the industry in 2021 through 2022. It will take awhile to transition back to the office, in any fashion. Whether fully remote or hybrid, we will have to proceed slowly in creating new process, procedure and habit. We expect by late 2021, we’ll have much in hand of how our return to the office is working. By 2022 we’ll attain our groove and be more sure-footed.
Near Next Phase: New operators and industry concepts arising in 2023 through 2026. We’re bullish on new trends, new configurations, new solutions and it’s always exciting and energizing to see what arises. Humans are brilliant at adaptation.
Barring any economic implosion, we see that the next consolidation phase comes in 2027/2028, as mergers and acquisitions create efficiencies (i.e. CBRE/Industrious of 2021)
What we do understand is that our industry follows a predictable cycle, allowing us to respond with new ways of enabling people’s best work in a community that each of us identifies as “ours”. This will always be part of our workplace mantra.
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This post originally appeared in the Yes! Blog (April 14, 2021) and was written by Wendy Spreenberg.
Interested in learning more on how we can help your workspace adapt? Connect with me for a free consultation!
